Civil Systems Investment Planning and Pricing (12-706) /
Quantitative Methods for Policy Analysis (19-702)

scott

Instructor: H. Scott Matthews

  • Office: Porter Hall 123-A
  • Office Hours: Monday after class, or by appt.
  • Phone: 268-6218
  • Email: hsm@cmu.edu
  • TAs: Paulina Jaramillo, Office: PH A1, x8-5550;
  • Amanda Hughes, Office: HBH A012, x8-3376
  • TA Office Hours Mon, Tues 430-530pm in CEE Lounge
Following is the most up to date course schedule. Lecture notes will be linked in the 'Topic' column. While lecture notes may be available before class, they may be changed before or during class (e.g. if we do not cover all material). So check back between classes to ensure no content was changed. Readings should be done BEFORE each class (e.g., Chapter 1 should be read for first lecture).

Updated 9/18/2007

Date Topic(s) Assignment /
Supplements		 Reading / Sample Problems
M 27-Aug Learning Objectives

Decision Analysis and Models		 Estimation Handout Clemen Chapter 1
W 29-Aug Estimation (notes available after class) PS 1 Out

Sample Estimation Text

Sample Estimation Spreadheet		 Estimation Reading
F 31-Aug No Class (Labor Day)  
M 3-Sept No Class (Labor Day)  
W 5-Sept Information / Quantitative Design PS 1 Due Info Design Article 1

Info Design Article 2

Info Design Article 3
F 7-Sept Discounting Review Penny Spreadsheet Schaum Chapters 1, 2, 7

Au Textbook PDF Chapters:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3
Au Problem Solutions (All)
M 10-Sept Discounting, Real/Nominal Values RealNominal Spreadsheet
Big Mac Conversion Handout 		Clemen Chapter 2
Ex 2.9 - 2.11

Schaum Chapters 4, 5, 6 (6.5 only), 7, 8

Au Textbook PDF Chapters:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3
W 12-Sept

 Real/Nominal Values

Social Discount Rate

Hyperbolic Discounting
Government BCA/Discount Rates		 PS 2 Out
RealNominal Spreadsheet
Big Mac Conversion Handout
Pipeline Case Handout 		RFF Handout
Au Chapter 13
F 14-Sept Borrowing, Depreciation, Taxes

LoanTax Spreadsheet 		Schaum Chapters 9, 10, 11

Au Chapters  4,11 | 12

Parking Garage Case Study
M 17-Sept

 Pipeline Case

Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis		 Case Writeup Due

Sens Anal Sheet
Pipeline Sheet (posted after class)
Excel Data Tables Guide		 Pipeline Case Handout

Clemen Chapter 5
Ex 5.11
W 19-Sept Sensitivity / Uncertainty Analysis (cont.)
Sensitivity Analysis Software Tutorial - TopRank 		PS 2 Due

Pipeline Sens Analysis		 Case Study 1 Sample
F 21-Sept Microeconomics (draft slides):
Supply, Demand, Cost, Elasticity

 Micro Chapters:
3 | 21 | 22 (up to p. 550) | Excerpts 23/24
M 24-Sept Pareto Efficiency
Welfare Economics		 Micro Chap. 22 (pp. 550-555)
W 26-Sept Market Failure
Stakeholder Analysis (Who Wins, Loses)
Monopoly		 PS 2 Solutions
PS 2 Solution Spreadsheet
PS 3 Out
 Externalities
Monopoly
F 28-Sept No Class (Projects Due) Project 1 Due (in my Office by 4pm)
Katrina Wikipedia Note 1
Katrina Wikipedia Note 2
M 1-Oct

 Pricing
Guest Lecturer - Chris Hendrickson		 Pricing Chapter
W 3-Oct Everglades Project
Guest Lecturer - Chris Hendrickson
M 8-Oct Demand Estimation
Decision Structuring and Decision Analysis
Economic Impacts and Report Writing (no notes)
Kennywood Case (no writeup due)		 Kennywood BCA

Clemen Chapter 3, 4 (up to p. 137)
W 10-Oct Value of Information EVPI spreadsheet

PS 3 Due | PS 3 Data
 Clemen Chapter 12
F 12-Oct

 Software Demo: PrecisionTree (w/EVPI stuff)
 Clemen (rest of Chapter 4)
M 15-Oct Facility Feasibility Case

Imperfect Information
Risk Attitudes and Utility
 Case Study Summary Due

Facility Case Spreadsheet (posted after class)
 Facility Case Study
Clemen Chapter 13, 14
W 17-Oct Deal or No Deal
PS 4 Out
PS 3 Solutions
Deal Spreadsheet
F 19-Oct MidSemester Break
M 22-Oct Multi-Attribute Decisions
Clemen Chapter 15, 16
W 24-Oct Multi-Attribute (cont.)
Stochastic Dominance
Eliciting Weights
 PS 4 Due
M 29-Oct Monte Carlo Estimation
Distribution Functions: Choosing and Using
 Test Monte Carlo
Other Spreadsheet Examples
Using Excel to Help Distributions 		Clemen Chapters 7, 9 (skim/refresh memory)

Clemen Chapter 8, 11
W 31-Oct Subjective Probability
Travel Costs (In-class Case Study) 		HW 4 solutions
HW 4 Spreadsheet 1
HW 4 Spreadsheet 2 		VTTS Reading
F 2-Nov @RISK and BestFit tutorial - Simulation and Curve Fitting Clemen Chapter 10
M 5-Nov Extreme Events Modeling
Cost-Effectiveness / Cost-Utility Analysis 		Extreme Events Spreadsheet CEA Primer 1
CEA Primer 2
W 7-Nov

 No Class - moved to Friday 11/9/07
F 9-Nov

 Risk Analysis/Value of Life Life Saving Handout (w/ Appendix)
Defibrillator Case
M 12-Nov No Class
W 14-Nov Risk Modeling
In-Class Case Study: Clean Air Act 		HW 5 Due
Externality Adder Spreadsheet 		EPA Valuation of Seniors
M 19-Nov Tire Pressure Case Study
**Most Important are Exec Summary, Introduction, Target Population, Costs, Cost-Effectiveness sections

Final Rule (skim first few pages) 		Case Study Writeup Due (2 pages max)
W 21-Nov No Class - Thanksgiving Break
M 26-Nov Emissions Testing Case

Multiple Unit Cost-effectiveness		 (no) Case Study Summary Due PS 5 Solutions
PS 5 Spreadsheet
W 28-Nov TBA Project 2 Due (4pm)
M 3-Dec Solar House Paper
Solar House Case Notes
Questions for Writeup

Multiple Effectiveness Units
 Case Study writeup Due
W 5-Dec Landfill Electricity Case

Wrap-Up		 HW 6 Due
Landfill paper
9-Dec to 11-Dec (TBA) 2-day Take Home Final - pick up noon Saturday in my office  
Links to Course Materials
Course Syllabus and Schedule
Lecture Notes for this course will be posted periodically, depending on attendance.