Mitchell J. Small

Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and Engineering and Public Policy

Carnegie Mellon, 1982-.

Interests

Research in mathematical modeling and monitoring of environmental systems, uncertainty and risk.

For a full list of major publications click here for pdf file.

Education

B.S. 1974, Carnegie Mellon University

M.S. 1980, University of Michigan

Ph.D. 1982, University of Michigan

Recent Professional Actitivies

Associate Editor, Environmental Science & Technology, 1995-present.

 

Elected Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), December 2003.

 

US EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB), Recent Panels:

  • Member of SAB Expert Elicitation Advisory Panel, 2009.
  • Member of SAB Dioxin Review Panel, 2010-

 

Independent Third Party Administrator for Peer Consultation Panel on EPA-DuPont PFOA Site Related Environmental Assessment Program, 2008-2009.

See: http://itp-pfoa.ce.cmu.edu/

 

Appointed Expert Scientist to advise US EPA Ecological Services Research Program (ESRP) on methods for Decision Support.  Application to coral reefs management in US coastal waters, 2009 - .

 

Chair of Advisory Board for Cranfield University (UK) Research Council/Defra Collaborative Centre of Excellence in Understanding and Managing Natural and Environmental Risks, 2009-.

Research Focus

Mathematical modeling of environmental quality, including surface water, sediment ground water, ambient air quality, and indoor air pollution.  Statistical methods and uncertainty analysis; human exposure modeling, including drinking water, ground water and soil pollution monitoring.  Leak detection monitoring for geologic CO2 sequestration.  Decision support for ecosystems services.

Representative Publications

Books

McDaniels, T.L. and M.J. Small (eds). 2004. Risk Analysis and Society: An Interdisciplinary Characterization of the Field. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Ramaswami, A., J.A. Milford and M.J. Small. 2005. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Pollutant Transport, Fate and Risk in the Environment. John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Journal Articles

Small, M.J. and W.P. Darby. 1976. Evaluating water quality impacts of small streams on major urban rivers. J. Boston Society of Civil Eng., ASCE, 63: 101-122.

Darby, W.P. and M.J. Small. 1976. Identifying urban flash flooding problems. J. Wat. Res. Planning Mgt. Div., ASCE, 102: 349-363.

Di Toro, D.M. and M.J. Small. 1979. Stormwater interception and storage. J. Env. Eng. Div., ASCE, 105: 43-54.

Small, M.J. and P.J. Samson. 1983. Stochastic simulation of atmospheric trajectories. J. Clim. & Appl. Meteor., 22: 266-277.

Small, M.J. and M.C. Sutton. 1986. A direct distribution model for regional aquatic acidification. Water Resources Research, 22: 1749-1758.

Crawford, S.L., M.H. DeGroot, J.B. Kadane and M.J. Small. 1992. Modeling lake chemistry distributions: Bayesian methods for estimating a finite-mixture model. Technometrics, 34: 441-453.

Patwardhan, A. and M.J. Small. 1992. Bayesian methods for model uncertainty with application to future sea level rise. Risk Analysis, 12: 513-523.

Wilkes, C.R., M.J. Small, J.B. Andelman, N.J. Giardino and J. Marshall. 1992. Inhalation exposure model for volatile chemicals from indoor uses of water. Atmospheric Environment, 26A: 2227-2236.

Merz, J., M.J. Small and P. Fischbeck. 1992. Measuring decision sensitivity: A combined Monte Carlo-logistic regression approach. Medical Decision Making, 12: 189-196.

Ramaswami, A. and M.J. Small. 1994. Modeling the spatial variability of natural trace element concentrations in groundwater. Water Resources Research, 30: 269-282.

Dakins, M.E., J.E. Toll and M.J. Small. 1994. Risk-based environmental remediation: Decision framework and role of uncertainty. Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry, 13: 1907-1915.

Small, M.J., A.B. Nunn, III, B.L. Forslund and D.A. Daily. 1995. Source attribution of elevated residential soil lead near a battery recycling site. Environmental Science & Technology, 24(4): 883-895.

Brand, K.P. and M.J. Small. 1995. Updating uncertainty in an integrated risk assessment: Conceptual framework and methods. Risk Analysis, 15(6): 719-731.

Dakins, M.E., J.E. Toll, M.J. Small and K.P. Brand. 1996. Risk-based environmental remediation: Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis and the expected value of sample information. Risk Analysis, 16(1): 67-79.

Wolfson, L.J., J.B. Kadane and M.J. Small. 1996. Bayesian environmental policy decisions: Two case studies. Ecological Applications, 6(4): 1056-1066.

Kovacs, D.C., M.J. Small, C.I. Davidson and B. Fischhoff. 1997. Behavorial factors affecting exposure potential for household cleaning products. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 7(4): 505-520.

Small, M.J. 1997. Groundwater detection monitoring using combined information from multiple constituents. Water Resources Research, 33(5): 957-969.

Stiber, N.A., M. Pantazidou and M.J. Small. 1999. Expert system methodology for evaluating reductive dechlorination at TCE sites. Environmental Science & Technology, 33(17): 3012-3020.

Farrow, R.S., C.B. Goldburg and M.J. Small. 2000. Economic valuation and the environment: A special issue. Environmental Science & Technology, 34(8): 1381-1383.

Casman, E.A., B. Fischhoff, C. Palmgren, M.J. Small and F. Wu. 2000. An integrated risk model of a drinking-water-borne cryptosporidiosis outbreak. Risk Analysis, 20(4): 495-511.

Sohn, M.D., M.J. Small and M. Pantazidou. 2000. Reducing uncertainty in groundwater site characterization using Bayes Monte Carlo methods. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 126(10): 893-902.

West, J.J., M.J. Small and H. Dowlatabadi. 2001. Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise. Climatic Change, 48: 317-342.

Riley, D.M., B. Fischhoff, M.J. Small and P. Fischbeck. 2001. Evaluating the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies for consumer chemical products. Risk Analysis, 21, 357-369.

Gurian, P.L, M.J. Small, J.R. Lockwood III and M.J. Schervish. 2001. Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels. Water Resources Research, 37(9): 2213-2226.

Gurian, P.L, M.J. Small, J.R. Lockwood III and M.J. Schervish. 2001. Addressing uncertainty and conflicting cost estimates in revising the arsenic MCL. Environmental Science & Technology, 35(22): 4414-4420.

Lockwood, J.R., M.J. Schervish, P. Gurian and M.J. Small. 2001. Characterization of arsenic occurrence in source waters of US community water systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(456): 1184-1193.

Gurian, P.L. and M.J. Small. 2002. Point-of-use treatment and the revised arsenic MCL. Journal American Water Works Association, 94(3): 101-108.

Reichert, P., M. Schervish and M.J. Small. 2002. An efficient sampling technique for Bayesian inference with computationally demanding models. Technometrics, 44(4): 318-327.

Axtell, R.L., C.J. Andrews and M.J. Small. 2002. Agent-based modeling and industrial ecology. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 5(4): 10-13. Invited column on Systems Modeling and the Environment.

DeKay, M.L., M.J. Small, P.S. Fischbeck, R.S. Farrow, A. Cullen, J.B. Kadane, L. Lave, M.G. Morgan and K. Takemura. 2002. Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies. Journal of Risk Research, 5(4): 391-417.

Schultz, M.T., M.J. Small, R.S. Farrow and P.S. Fischbeck. 2004 State water pollution control policy insights from a reduced-form model. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(2): 150-159.

Lockwood, J.R., M.J. Schervish, P. Gurian and M.J. Small. 2004. Analysis of contaminant co-occurrence in community water systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(465): 45-56.

Boccelli, D.L., M.J. Small and U.M. Diwekar. 2004. Treatment plant design for particulate removal: Effects of flow rate and particle characteristics. Journal of American Water Works Association, 96(11): 77-90.

Karcher, S.C., M.J. Small and J.M. VanBriesen. 2004. Statistical method to evaluate the occurrence of PCB transformations in river sediments with application to Hudson River data. Environmental Science & Technology, 38(24): 6760 -6766.

Krayer von Krauss, M.P., E.A. Casman and M.J. Small. 2004. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide tolerant oilseed crops. Risk Analysis, 24(6): 1515-1527.

Stiber, N.A., M.J. Small and M. Pantazidou. 2004. Site-specific updating and aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network models for multiple experts. Risk Analysis, 24(6): 1529-1538.

Ramaswami, A., J.B. Milford and M.J.Small. 2004. Integrated environmental assessment, Part II: Modeling fate and transport. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 8(3): 11-13.

Goyal, A., M.J. Small, K. von Stackelberg, D. Burmistrov and N. Jones. 2005. Estimation of fugitive lead emission rates from secondary lead facilities using hierarchical Bayesian models. Environmental Science & Technology, 39(13): 4929-4937.

Boccelli, D. L.; Small, M. J.; Dzombak, D. A. 2005. Enhanced coagulation for satisfying the arsenic maximum contaminant level under variable and uncertain conditions. Environmental Science & Technology, 39(17): 6501-6507.

MacDonald, J. and M.J. Small. 2005. Assessing sites contaminated with unexploded ordnance: Statistical modeling of ordnance spatial distribution. Environmental Science & Technology, 40(3): 931-938.

Weber, C.L., J.M. VanBriesen and M.J. Small. 2006. A stochastic regression approach to analyzing thermodynamic uncertainty in chemical speciation models. Environmental Science & Technology, 40(12): 3872-3878.

McKone, T.E. and M.J. Small. 2007. Integrated environmental assessment, Part III: Exposure assessment. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 11(1): 4-7.

Karcher, S.C., J.M. VanBriesen and M.J. Small. 2007. Numerical method to elucidate likely target positions of chlorine removal in anaerobic sediments undergoing polychlorinated biphenyl dechlorination. Journal of Environmental Engineering. 133(3): 278-286.

 

Boccelli, D., M.J. Small and U. Diwekar. 2007. Drinking water treatment plant design incorporating variability and uncertainty. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 133(3): 303-312.

 

Higgins, C.J., H.S. Matthews, C.T. Hendrickson and M.J. Small. 2007. Lead demand of future vehicle technologies. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 12(2): 103-114.  

 

Gilau, A.M., R. Van Buskirk and M.J. Small. 2007. Enabling optimal energy options under the Clean Development Mechanism. Energy Policy, 35(11): 5526-5534.

 

Gilau, A.M. and M.J. Small. 2008. Designing cost-effective seawater reverse osmosis under optimal energy options. Renewable Energy. 33(4): 617-630.

 

Xu, J., P.S. Fischbeck, M.J. Small, J.M. VanBriesen and E. Casman. 2008. Identifying sets of key nodes for placing sensors in dynamic water distribution networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 134(4): 378-385.

 

Ryker, S.J. and M.J. Small. 2008. Combining occurrence and toxicity information to identify priorities for drinking-water mixture research. Risk Analysis, 28(3): 653-666.

 

Choi, T., M. J. Schervish, K. A. Schmitt and M. J. Small. 2008. A Bayesian approach to a logistic regression model with incomplete information. Biometrics, 64(2): 424-430. 

 

Brusick, D., M.J. Small, E.L. Cavalieri, D. Chakravarti, X. Ding, D.G. Longfellow, J. Nakamura, E.C. Rogan and J.A. Swenberg. 2008. Possible genotoxic modes of action for naphthalene. Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology, 51(2), Supplement 1(Naphthalene State of Science Symposium): 43-50.

 

MacDonald, J., M.J. Small and M.G. Morgan. 2008. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: Expert beliefs. Risk Analysis, 28(4): 825-841.

 

Small, M.J. 2008. Methods for assessing uncertainty in fundamental assumptions and associated models for cancer risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 28(5): 1289-1307.

 

Ostfeld, A., J.G. Uber, E. Salomons, J.W. Berry, W.E. Hart, C.A. Phillips, J-P. Watson, G. Dorini, P. Jonkergouw, Z. Kapelan, F. di Pierro, S-T. Khu, D. Savic, D. Eliades, M. Polycarpou , S.R. Ghimire, B.D. Barkdoll, R. Gueli; J.J. Huang, E.A. McBean, W. James; A. Krause, J. Leskovec, S. Isovitsch, J. Xu, C. Guestrin, J. VanBriesen, M. Small, P. Fischbeck, A. Preis, M. Propato, O. Piller, G.B. Trachtman, Z.Y. Wu and T. Walski. 2008. The Battle of the Water Sensor Networks (BWSN): A design challenge for engineers and algorithms. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 134(6): 556-568.

 

MacDonald, J. and M.J. Small. 2009. Statistical analysis of metallic anomaly patterns at former Air Force bombing ranges. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(2): 203-214.

 

MacDonald, J., M.J. Small and M.G. Morgan. 2009. Quantifying the risks of unexploded ordnance at closed military bases. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(2): 259-265.

 

Green, S.T., M.J. Small and E.A. Casman. 2009. Determinants of national diarrheal disease burden. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(4): 993–999.

 

Attari, S., M. Schoen, C. Davidson, M.L. DeKay, W. Bruine de Bruin, R. Dawes, and M. Small. 2009. Preferences for change: Do individuals prefer voluntary actions, soft regulations, or hard regulations to decrease fossil fuel consumption? Ecological Economics, 68: 1701-1710.

 

Francis, R.A., M.J. Small and J.M. VanBriesen. 2009. Multivariate distributions of disinfection by-products in chlorinated drinking water. Water Research, 43(14): 3453-3468.

 

Xu, J., M.P. Johnson, P.S. Fischbeck, M.J. Small and J.M. VanBriesen. 2009. Robust placement of sensors in dynamic water distribution systems. European Journal of Operational Research, 202(2010): 707-716.

 

Logue, J.M.., M.J. Small and A.L. Robinson. 2009. Identifying priority pollutant sources: Apportioning air toxics risks using positive matrix factorization. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(24): 9439-9444.

 

Francis, R.A., J.M. VanBriesen and M.J. Small. 2010. Bayesian statistical modeling of disinfection byproduct (DBP) bromine incorporation in the Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. Environmental Science and Technology, 44(4): 1232–1239.

 

Schoen, M.E., M.J. Small and J.M. VanBriesen. 2010. Bayesian model for flow-class dependent distribution of fecal-indicator bacterial concentrations in surface waters. Water Research, 44(3): 1006-1016.

 

Logue, J.M., M.J. Small, D. Stern, J. Maranche and A.L. Robinson. 2010. Spatial variation in ambient air toxics concentrations and health risks between industrial-influenced, urban, and rural sites. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 60(3): http://secure.awma.org/journal/Abstract.aspx?id=2208

 

Hughes, A., J.M. VanBriesen and M.J. Small. 2010. Identification of structural properties associated with polychlorinated biphenyl dechlorination processes. Environmental Science & Technology, 4(8): 2842–2848.

Rehr, A.P., M.J.Small, H.S. Matthews and C.T. Hendrickson. 2010. Economic sources and spatial distribution of airborne chromium risks in the U.S. Environmental Science & Technology, Available online at:  http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es9013085